Sunday 17 February 2013

The Overall Bottom Line for 2013

With all said and noted, taking the combination of the cycles, seasonals, 'presidential cycle' - and the Bradley indicator - and the overall bottom line for the year 2013 tends to favor a high in January giving way to weakness into February, back to or below 70-day moving average. From there, if that low is also able to remain above the 11/16/12 low of 1343.35 on the S&P (as the odds tend to favor) - and ideally above the late-December bottom of 1398.11 - then we should see a rally in the range of 9-14% into early-Summer (June, plus or minus), a move which ends up topping the larger 360-day time cycle.

From a high made around early-Summer of this year, the risks will then move to the downside into later in the year, with the probabilities favoring a correction in the range of 18% or greater (plus or minus) into the Autumn months, eventually setting up a low between late-September (with the time cycles), but which could easily stretch out into mid-to-late October (as per seasonals) or even very early-November (with the 'presidential cycle'). From there, a strong seasonal rally will ideally take hold into year-end - which could potentially push out into the Spring of 2014 before re-topping.