The Overall Bottom Line for 2013

With all said and noted, taking the combination of the cycles, seasonals, 'presidential cycle' - and the Bradley indicator - and the overall bottom line for the year 2013 tends to favor a high in January giving way to weakness into February, back to or below 70-day moving average. From there, if that low is also able to remain above the 11/16/12 low of 1343.35 on the S&P (as the odds tend to favor) - and ideally above the late-December bottom of 1398.11 - then we should see a rally in the range of 9-14% into early-Summer (June, plus or minus), a move which ends up topping the larger 360-day time cycle.

From a high made around early-Summer of this year, the risks will then move to the downside into later in the year, with the probabilities favoring a correction in the range of 18% or greater (plus or minus) into the Autumn months, eventually setting up a low between late-September (with the time cycles), but which could easily stretch out into mid-to-late October (as per seasonals) or even very early-November (with the 'presidential cycle'). From there, a strong seasonal rally will ideally take hold into year-end - which could potentially push out into the Spring of 2014 before re-topping.           

PAUL B. FARRELL Predicts Time bomb to market meltdown ticks louder

My response: LMAO....Dr Disaster is back for his weekly rant with poor analysis and relying on past phrases spoken at any-time in the last decade. I predict there there will be WW3 at some point and aliens will make direct contact with the earth. Dr Disaster forecasts disaster every year until it happens... Then he's referenced by the big news flow outlets as predicting the crash of 2### like he's some sort of new Nostrodamus. Will the newsosphere be commenting how I was right in my predictions....NO! Should they....NO! Here's a statistic for you, unemployment is dropping year on year, as that occurs so does GDP growth and debt is inflated away, by 2016 unemployment will be at 5%. Lets see whether the wall street newsosphere will be clambering for me to appear on CNBC, Bloomberg and the like.


Original article: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/time-bomb-to-market-meltdown-ticks-louder-2013-01-18?pagenumber=1

Should I Buy Apple?

 The answer: Current Price = $506 >> Markets can be irrational, efficient market theory well HA! Yes markets can mis-price stocks, but remember this price will over a # term = the worth of the stock price. Apples price has simply taken a breather, it went up too far too fast. When results are delivered over the next 4 quarters and you own this stock you will be wetting your thunder pants because you will be laughing so hard with joy because that stock leverage will lead you to your early retirement from 9-5ish hell.... Salute Jobs up there in the sky as people migrate from Android, RIM & MSFT & NOK to the premier business & consumer kudos phone. If you don't have that apple on the back of you phone....your not hip or current.....your perhaps seen as second rate citizen. That's why school kids even want apple devices.....kudos, prestige and the kid that everyone now admires, your status goes UP, UP, UP. That's not going to change and therefore apple will reign.....and reign long. So buy that stock laddies, otherwise you'll be dreaming and sobbing in your sleep, maybe even waking up regurgitating these words. Yes no buy and you commit yourself to endless nights of nightmares and sleep talking....your move.

USA 2012 Debt to GDP 105%

The USA debt the government owes itself, the debt-to-GDP ratio is roughly 73%. But including the debt held in government accounts, the ratio is about 105%. Either way, it’s the biggest debt load the country has had since World War II. That’s due to both the shrinkage of the overall economy — because of the terrible financial crisis/recession — and the increases in Federal spending, aimed in part at supporting the economy. By way of comparison, Moody’s lists troubled European countries such as Italy and Spain as having debt-to-GDP ratios of 120% and 69% at the end of 2011, respectively.

Response to: Sceptic caught between devil and ECB

A man with more wisdom than all central bankers put together, a man who understands how to build trust in a fiat currency, a man who understands how to avoid a global Zimbabwe, a man who understands a level of distrust in currencies already exists (gold up >1500% with central banks purchases), a man with the boldness to stand up against the powerful many (illuminati?) for his beliefs. Exponential growth in fiat currency year over year for the past circa 2 decades can not continue without destruction, I can not believe for 1 minute that the illuminati he stands up against do not know exactly what they are creating. Therefore they themselves will be held to account by the public & police services, should inflation become uncontrollable, it would not be unimaginable to expect to see some of the illuminati eating porridge for breakfast in the future.....it has happend in history before in these similar circumstances.

In response & agreement with: Jens Weidmann Subject: Sceptic caught between devil and ECB

Response To: ‘Lead or leave euro’, Soros tells Germany

Considering the German history (hyperinflation causing WWII), how can Soros expect the Germans to agree to a notable inflationary spiral, which growth at 5% would create. Does he not know their history and what would potentially happen? Would he want that again? I don't! Germany couldn't possibly back other peoples debt, for if they reneged on the debt Germany would end right back at a post WWI timeframe minus the payments for loss of WWI to other countries. This is such a difficult time, it's useful to hear suggestions but a notable inflationary spiral is just as bad as a deflationary spiral. Countries need to use balance budgets of which this is written in both Germany & Spains basic law. Only large investors such as Soros would benefit from notable government sponsored growth (something he's enjoyed for some time). What about savers who'd like to invest in a none manipulated economy, don't they deserve a chance considering they've earned there savings from hard graft? My belief is Soros statements are not impartial and do not take account of the wider society. Time for balance and restraint, we can't go on building a debt ponzi scheme.

Original FT Article: ‘Lead or leave euro’, Soros tells Germany

Response To: UK second-quarter GDP revised up

FT Quote: ""However, there are signs that the very weak economy is holding consumers back from spending."" Not so, excessive commodity inflation is holding consumers back in addition to their debt level created by inflated property prices. Inflated property removed the disposable income. Looks like Grodon Browns light touch credit boom banking policy did not either end boom bust, deliver sustainability, fairness within society. What it certainly did was create the complete opposite, brought forward spending, enshrined people within the banking system for a long long time and made buy to let debtors who DON'T work for their money, filthy rich. I'm afraid we live in such a sad sad world that wants an always UP mentality. I tell you now, a couple of years of recession will be a tonic for sustainability. We may get that when Keynesian King leaves the BOE, we need a German / Canadian BOE governor that can knock some sense into banking and any political party which wishes to create a ridiculous >2% inflation economy. Original FT.com Article: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0f8ad8d6-edc7-11e1-8d72-00144feab49a.html#axzz24MySMwSc